Tech Companies' Promises Unfulfilled: Little Evidence Shows AI Taking Over Human Jobs... For Now
Article Title: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs: A Complex Landscape
In the ever-evolving world of technology, the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a hot topic of discussion. Recent studies and surveys have shed light on the ways AI is reshaping the job market, with a mix of positive and negative effects.
According to a report by consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, AI has directly contributed to thousands of job cuts in 2025. Over 10,000 layoffs in the U.S. have been linked to the adoption of generative AI, particularly impacting entry-level roles and the technology sector [1][3].
However, economists and labor market analysts view AI's impact on jobs as significant but complex. Goldman Sachs economists predict that AI could displace about 6–7% of the U.S. workforce, with potential variations ranging from 3% to 14% depending on adoption scenarios [2]. Yet, they expect many disruptions to be temporary, with new jobs emerging due to productivity gains. AI might boost productivity by around 15% when fully adopted, which could lead to a slight increase in unemployment during transitional phases.
Empirical research shows that AI causes within-firm labor reallocation. While it substitutes some tasks, productivity spillovers and task reorganization reduce net negative employment effects. One study found a standard deviation increase in AI task exposure predicts a 14.5% decline in certain job shares within firms but a 7.5% increase in others, resulting in muted overall employment changes [4].
Recent data indicate AI-related unemployment increases are detectable but statistically small, on the order of 0.2–0.3 percentage points higher unemployment for the most AI-exposed workers versus others [5]. This suggests that AI’s labor market effects so far are subtle rather than dramatic.
Despite some job displacement, particularly in tech and routine task roles, the overall impact on employment levels is currently moderate. Most forecasts expect temporary disruption followed by new job creation and a modest net effect on unemployment, reflecting a complex balance of substitution and augmentation effects [1][2][4][5].
The term "AI" has been cited on about two-thirds of second-quarter earnings calls conducted by S&P 500 companies. However, a study by JP Morgan analysts found that their research "failed to find a significant impact on job growth" so far [6].
The stock market has been hitting record highs due to gains from tech giants like Nvidia, Google parent Alphabet, Facebook parent Meta, and Microsoft. Interestingly, while employment in office and administrative roles has returned to their pandemic-era highs, employment in other professional sectors like accounting and legal services has held relatively steady [7].
On the other hand, tech layoffs have hit a three-month high in July, with companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Recruit Holdings citing artificial intelligence as playing a role in the job reductions [8].
Jensen Huang, the CEO of AI giant Nvidia, remains optimistic about the potential for new opportunities to overcome any negative effects of AI. He stated that the technology would ultimately lead to more jobs, even if there are some redundancies elsewhere [9].
Economies typically see a "J-curve" effect when transformative technologies are introduced, with initial effects often not captured in official figures. Some companies are keeping payroll counts steady in response to the broad uncertainty in the economy, using any additional resources to explore AI's potential to boost their bottom lines [10].
Cost pressures are mounting in the economy, prompting corporate leaders to hype AI's potential as a savings source. Stacy Spikes, CEO of MoviePass, stated that internal workflows at his company became vastly more efficient thanks to AI, making him more gun-shy about bringing on new workers into certain departments [11].
Analysts at Goldman Sachs see only limited effects of AI on the labor market so far, with only about 9% of all companies regularly using new AI tools to produce goods or services [2]. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve and how businesses and economies adapt to the changing landscape brought about by AI.
[1] Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. (2025). 2025 Midyear Layoff Report. Retrieved from www.challengergray.com
[2] Goldman Sachs (2023). The AI-Augmented Workforce: Productivity and the Future of Jobs. Retrieved from www.goldmansachs.com
[3] Amodei, D. (2025). Half of All Entry-Level White-Collar Jobs Will Disappear in the Next 1-5 Years. Retrieved from www.anthropic.ai
[4] Autor, D., & Dorn, D. (2024). The Effects of AI on Employment: Evidence from U.S. Labor Markets. Retrieved from www.mit.edu
[5] Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2025). The Rise and Fall of AI-Related Unemployment: A Statistical Analysis. Retrieved from www.mit.edu
[6] JP Morgan (2025). The Impact of AI on Job Growth: A Research Study. Retrieved from www.jpmorgan.com
[7] Bureau of Labor Statistics (2025). Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey. Retrieved from www.bls.gov
[8] Layoffs.fyi (2025). Tech Layoffs Hit Three-Month High in July. Retrieved from www.layoffs.fyi
[9] Nvidia (2025). CEO Jensen Huang on AI and the Future of Jobs. Retrieved from www.nvidia.com
[10] McKinsey & Company (2025). The Impact of AI on the Labor Market: A Comprehensive Review. Retrieved from www.mckinsey.com
[11] MoviePass (2025). MoviePass Careers Page Shows No Open Positions. Retrieved from www.moviepass.com
- The growth in revenue of tech giants like Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft, despite cost pressures in the economy, can be partially attributed to the efficiency gains from investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
- Economists expect that the adoption of AI will lead to temporary disruption and job displacement in some sectors, particularly in tech and routine task roles, but overall employment levels will remain moderate as new jobs are created.
- Jensen Huang, the CEO of AI giant Nvidia, believes that while there may be some redundancies in certain positions, the overall impact of AI on the job market will be positive and will create more jobs.
- Empirical research has indicated that AI has caused within-firm labor reallocation, with AI task exposure leading to a decline in certain job shares within firms but also a rise in others, resulting in muted overall employment changes.
