Stock market's VN-Index could potentially reach 1,600 points, yet expert cautions about profit-taking pressure lingering
The Vietnamese stock market is gearing up for a new trading week, with the VN-Index expected to test the psychological threshold of 1,600 points. Last week, the VN-Index gained 89.74 points, or 6%, to reach a record 1,584.95 points, and the VN30 Index rose by 7.15% to 1,729.08 points.
However, the short-term forecast for the VN-Index suggests potential volatility and possible corrections due to profit-taking and market resistance around 1,500 to 1,600 points. Some experts warn that the market might slow in late August and September with the risk of technical corrections because of selling pressure and investor caution.
In contrast, the medium-term forecast is more optimistic. Multiple analysts and securities firms project significant further gains by the end of 2025. The VN-Index is expected to rise toward or beyond 1,800 points by Christmas 2025, driven by macroeconomic stability, policy reforms, capital inflows, and positive global and domestic factors such as anticipated US interest rate cuts and growth-supporting government policies.
Viet Dragon Securities projects a range of 1,513 to 1,756 points for the next 6-8 months, indicating 6%-23% growth from July 2025 levels. This aligns with a so-called “megatrend” phase of growth in Vietnam’s stock market due to improving investor sentiment and integration into global supply chains.
Key factors supporting the medium-term outlook include continued access to low-cost capital and domestic reforms, positive export recovery and public investment policies, and expectations of US interest rate cuts boosting market sentiment and bond markets.
Foreign investors net sold more than VNĐ12.8 trillion on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, focusing on several large-cap stocks. Despite this, several sectors, including steel, construction, fertiliser, agriculture, seafood, oil and gas, real estate, and financial stocks, posted positive performances.
It's worth noting that profit-taking pressure and divergence among stock groups could trigger short-term volatility. However, the firm projects the VN-Index could reach the 1,750-1,800-point range in 2026, viewing current short-term fluctuations as opportunities to accumulate for the longer-term uptrend.
In summary, the VN-Index is expected to experience short-term volatility around current resistance levels (~1,500–1,600 points) with some potential corrections. However, the medium-term outlook is optimistic, with forecasts of the VN-Index reaching 1,750–1,800 points by the end of 2025, supported by macroeconomic momentum and policy reforms.
Phan Tấn Nhật, head of analysis at Sài Gòn - Hà Nội Securities, states that the VN-Index is being supported by positive momentum across various sectors. Bullish sentiment continues to dominate in the Vietnamese stock market.
- Some experts are concerned that the Vietnamese stock market might slow down in late August and September, with the risk of technical corrections due to selling pressure and investor caution, especially around the psychological threshold of 1,600 points.
- The medium-term forecast for the VN-Index is optimistic, with multiple analysts and securities firms predicting significant further gains by the end of 2025, potentially reaching or surpassing 1,800 points by Christmas 2025.
- In contrast to the short-term forecast, the medium-term outlook is supported by various factors, including macroeconomic stability, policy reforms, capital inflows, positive global and domestic factors, and expectations of US interest rate cuts.
- Foreign investors have been net selling stocks on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, focusing on several large-cap stocks, but sectors like steel, construction, fertiliser, agriculture, seafood, oil and gas, real estate, and financial stocks have still posted positive performances.
- Phan Tấn Nhật, head of analysis at Sài Gòn - Hà Nội Securities, believes that the VN-Index is being supported by positive momentum across various sectors, indicating that bullish sentiment continues to dominate in the Vietnamese stock market.
