Future Warfare Reimagined: Discourse with Dr. Tughral Yamin Concerning the 2025 Indo-Pak Conflict
In the modern world, war isn't confined to war zones, and grasping the intricacies of strategy, technology, and statecraft is more crucial than ever, particularly in South Asia. In this dynamic region, tensions and military advancements significantly shape the regional landscape.
Our magazine engages with Dr. Tughral Yamin, a distinguished expert bridging the gap between military strategy and academic scholarship. Serving as a Brigadier in the Pakistan Army from 1974 to 2008, Dr. Yamin accumulated diverse command, staff, and international experiences, including a peacekeeping deployment in Somalia (1992-93) and acting as Pakistan's senior delegate to the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005, before earning the prestigious Sitara-i-Imtiaz award.
Following his military career, Dr. Yamin pursued academia, earning a PhD in Defense and Strategic Studies from Quaid-e-Azam University and joining the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), where he became the founding Associate Dean of the Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS) in 2013. Under his leadership, the center launched its PhD program and hosted international peace and conflict conferences.
Dr. Yamin has conducted advanced research on cyber confidence-building measures (CBMs) at Sandia National Laboratories in the United States. His scholarly work spans books and peer-reviewed journal articles, tackling topics such as nuclear deterrence, CBMs, asymmetric warfare, and strategic doctrines.
Through his deep understanding of the Indo-Pakistan conflict's implications for modern warfare, Dr. Yamin helps us unravel the complexities of deterrence, defense, and adaptation in the age of hybrid warfare threats.
Hifz: Looking back on your transition from military leadership to academia, how do you reflect on this shift?
Dr. Tughral Yamin: Transitioning from military leadership to academia was relatively smooth for me. Both domains require discipline, planning, and leadership, transferrable skills that I'd developed during my military career. The main difference I noticed was the setting - in the military, a substantial portion of my time was spent in the field, often in challenging conditions, concentrating on real-time operational decisions.
On the other hand, academia offered a more structured and comfortable environment, with lectures taking place in multimedia-enabled classrooms and interactions primarily based on discussions and research. Despite the change in context, the mission of service, mentorship, and contributing to national development remained consistent, just through different tools and platforms.
Hifz: How do you appraise the strategic and technological facets of the recent India-Pakistan conflict?
Dr. Tughral Yamin: The strategic and technological dynamics of the latest India-Pakistan standoff marked a substantial departure from previous crises. Initially, what stood out was India's use of a false flag operation to initiate hostilities - a daring move by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Although India boasts modern military capabilities, it struggled to translate this advantage into a decisive ground victory.
In contrast, Pakistan's armed forces displayed admirable professionalism, coordination, and technical expertise, solidifying their upper hand. A surprising result was India's inability to secure significant international backing. Instead of isolating Pakistan, Modi's approach inadvertently resurrected the Kashmir issue on the global stage, effectively reestablishing the India-Pakistan hyphenation that Indian diplomacy had worked tirelessly to dismantle. Ironically, this move opened the door for third-party mediation, particularly from U.S. President Donald Trump, who stepped in as a mediator. In his pursuit of dominance, India may have inadvertently weakened its strategic position.
Hifz: How do you view the role of hybrid warfare, such as disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic coercion, alongside conventional weapons?
Dr. Tughral Yamin: War encompasses more than just kinetic force; it involves diplomacy, economy, psyops (psychological operations), propaganda, and cyber operations. These tools are employed not solely to weaken adversaries but also to shape narratives and disrupt decision-making processes without engaging in direct combat. For national leadership, staying resilient and firmly united is essential.
During the recent India-Pakistan conflict, Pakistan showcased an effective response to hybrid warfare elements due to its coherent strategy and well-coordinated institutions. The country's soldiers, sailors, and airmen were better trained and motivated, and the populace stood firmly behind them.
Hifz: How did media and psychological tactics affect public and political reactions?
Dr. Tughral Yamin: Information serves as a weapon, used to sway morale, control public sentiment, and signal power or vulnerability to the international community. Psychological operations and media narratives influence public perception and political discourse during the conflict.
Pakistan's approach in this domain was measured and strategic. The clarity and professionalism of its messaging, combined with visible military preparedness, reassured the population and demonstrated resolve to external observers. The unity between the armed forces and the populace was particularly noteworthy, amplifying Pakistan's psychological edge and thwarting attempts at propaganda or misinformation.
What the conflict underscored was the importance of staying ready across all spectrums, from low-intensity engagements to potential strategic escalation. The ability to react promptly and effectively at every level of escalation remains integral to Pakistan's defense strategy. Consequently, future planning and procurement are likely to continue focusing on enhancing the precision, readiness, and interoperability of conventional forces, while preserving the credibility of its strategic deterrent.
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Hifz Ur RehmanHifz Ur Rehman is a devoted forensic scientist and science writer.
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Enrichment Data:In the recent India-Pakistan conflict, hybrid warfare played a significant role, including disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic coercion. Here's an overview of how these factors affected the conflict:
Hybrid Warfare Components
Disinformation
Social Media and Misinformation: A report indicated that social media played a substantial role in heightening the tensions between India and Pakistan, contributing to ongoing conflict even after military hostilities had ceased[2]. The spread of misinformation and disinformation exacerbated the situation by shaping public perception and fanning the flames of nationalism[3].
Cyberattacks
Cyberattacks: India faced organized cyberattacks during Operation Sindoor, reflecting the dual-front nature of modern hybrid warfare[1]. These attacks were part of a larger strategy aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure and undermining national security.
Economic Coercion
While specific details on economic coercion during the recent conflict are limited, hybrid warfare often involves economic pressure as a tool to influence political outcomes. This can consist of sanctions, trade restrictions, or other economic measures designed to weaken an adversary's economic stability.
Impact on Conflict Dynamics
- Escalation: Hybrid warfare strategies can escalate conflicts quickly by creating multiple fronts of engagement, making it challenging for nations to focus solely on traditional military responses.
- Public Perception: The use of disinformation and cyberattacks can shape public opinion and create confusion, affecting the political climate and international relations.
- Strategic Complexity: The incorporation of non-traditional warfare elements complicates strategic planning, as countries must now consider not just military strength but also cybersecurity, information security, and economic resilience.
In the context of Dr. Tughral Yamin's scholarly work, the discussion of hybrid warfare within the realm of technology involves examining cyberattacks as a key component of such conflicts. Additionally, understanding the role of politics in war-and-conflicts is crucial when analyzing how countries, such as India and Pakistan, engage in hybrid warfare tactics like economic coercion and the employment of disinformation campaigns to manipulate public sentiment.
Furthermore, the analysis of hybrid warfare also extends to cybersecurity and general news, as cyberattacks, social media, and misinformation play a significant role in shaping the dynamics of contemporary conflicts. In turn, understanding these aspects is essential for grasping the complexities of strategy, technology, and statecraft in the modern world, particularly in regions like South Asia, where conflicts, like India and Pakistan's, can significantly impact the regional landscape.
