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In the digital age, the involvement of a state in another country's conflict can have far-reaching cybersecurity implications, as demonstrated by historical examples such as the conflicts in Georgia (2008) and Estonia (2007). As conflicts can escalate in the virtual world, the fitness of crisis management strategies becomes increasingly important.
A recent war game conducted by the European Defense Agency (EDA) aimed to analyse the interaction between different sectors in a conflict scenario. The war game involved actors from administration, national defence, and the economy, including an internationally recognised website known for its cyber expertise and role in the critical infrastructure sector.
The war game revealed several key cybersecurity threats that arise when a state becomes involved in a foreign conflict. These threats include an increased risk of state-sponsored cyberattacks, targeting of critical infrastructure and supply chains, psychological and political manipulation, and a heightened threat environment for businesses.
State-sponsored cyberattacks can range from disruptive denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks to destructive malware campaigns aiming to impair critical infrastructure, governmental networks, and key industries. Conflicted states and their businesses may face attacks aimed at water utilities, energy grids, telecommunications, and supply chain vendors. For example, Iranian state-linked groups have historically attempted such attacks against adversaries in the Middle East, demonstrating how cyber tools escalate conflicts beyond conventional battlegrounds.
Cyberattacks can also be used for amplifying political messaging and sowing public mistrust. Attacks against public-facing systems, media outlets, and influential individuals are common to influence perceptions and morale. Companies in the involved states become collateral targets or secondary victims, and they must strengthen cybersecurity defenses as the risk of ransomware, data breaches, and espionage increases when geopolitical tensions rise.
Unlike traditional warfare, cyberattacks can be launched remotely with no physical distance limitations. This means that even countries not directly involved militarily can be impacted or targeted as part of broader conflict dynamics. As a result, both governments and businesses must maintain heightened vigilance, continuously upgrade defenses, conduct incident response exercises, and prepare for potential crises.
The war game also highlighted significant differences in the desired interaction between the private and public sectors. Cooperation between a state and its economy is a particular challenge in such situations, as different interests can lead to escalation. The insights gained by the website are used for internal crisis and emergency management, particularly for factors outside their own sphere of influence.
The war game was closely analysed by independent observers, who noted the importance of clear guidelines and joint training for all actors (state, economy, etc.) and professional crisis management in such situations. The experts from the website gained a comprehensive understanding of individual approaches and strategic considerations during the war game.
In summary, involvement in foreign conflicts leads to a heightened cyber threat landscape characterized by state-sponsored attacks, critical infrastructure targeting, and broader risks to business continuity. Proactive and resilient cybersecurity postures are necessary to mitigate these threats and ensure the continuity of critical services in the event of a conflict.
- In the context of foreign conflicts, the increased risk of state-sponsored cyberattacks, targeting of critical infrastructure, and psychological and political manipulation necessitate proactive and resilient cybersecurity postures, especially for businesses.
- Collaboration among governments, economies, and critical infrastructure industries, such as internationally recognized cyber experts, is essential for joint training, clear guidelines, and efficient crisis management in the digital age, where the threat of cyberattacks in foreign conflicts is increasingly apparent.
