CMU Model Forecasts DER Growth, Wins Award, Set for Utility Adoption
The energy sector has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade, with the rapid rise of distributed energy resources (DERs). Now, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have developed a model to forecast this growth, which has shown promising results in tests.
The model, primarily designed for short-term forecasts, has proven its mettle in practical applications. When tested with a utility in Indianapolis, Indiana, it consistently outperformed existing baselines in predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration.
The model's success has not gone unnoticed. The authors, whose identities remain undisclosed, were awarded the Best Applied Paper Award at the 2025 INFORMS Data Mining and Decision Analytics Workshop. Their study, available on the arXiv preprint server, has been recognised for its significant contribution to the field.
In light of these achievements, the Indiana utility is set to incorporate the model into its biannual integrated resource plan. This move aims to enhance the utility's ability to anticipate and adapt to the evolving energy landscape.
The model's successful application in Indianapolis demonstrates its potential to transform energy planning. Its integration into the Indiana utility's resource plan signals a step towards more accurate and adaptive energy forecasting. As DERs continue to reshape the energy landscape, such innovative tools will be crucial for utilities to stay ahead of the curve.
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