Chances of XRP ETF approval on Polymarket diminish following Securities and Exchange Commission's opposition
The approval odds for the U.S.-based XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have seen a slight dip, with current odds standing at 86%, according to the latest reports. This is the lowest the odds have been since January, following the announcement of SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw's intention to vote against the XRP ETF.
Commissioner Crenshaw, a vocal opponent of crypto-based ETFs, has been consistent in her stance. However, her dissent is unlikely to block approval, as she is outnumbered by other Commissioners who are more favourable to these products.
Despite Crenshaw's vote, the overall regulatory outlook remains positive, and the probability of approval has rebounded strongly. Several XRP ETF applications are currently under SEC review, with final decisions anticipated by October 2025. The SEC has already approved one XRP ETF—the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF—and is reviewing several others under new listing guidelines requiring at least six months of XRP futures trading.
The conclusion of the Ripple SEC lawsuit has substantially improved market sentiment and approval odds. Several experts now place the chances of XRP ETF approval around 88–95% before the end of 2025.
Large asset managers like BlackRock remain cautious and have delayed filing spot XRP ETF applications, largely due to broader regulatory ambiguities about the classification of crypto assets as securities or commodities and the general SEC stance. This cautiousness suggests that clearer federal regulatory frameworks or further legislative developments may facilitate a smoother approval process for future XRP ETFs.
In Japan, there is a growing trend for ETFs containing multiple assets, such as Bitcoin, XRP, and Gold. Japan's SBI Holdings, a close ally of Ripple, has submitted an application for an ETF containing Bitcoin and XRP.
Despite the short-term ambiguity introduced by Commissioner Crenshaw's opposition, most experts are convinced the XRP ETF remains on track. Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, for instance, holds a 95% chance of approval and labels the market's response to Crenshaw's stance as an overcorrection.
References:
- SEC Reviewing Several XRP ETFs under New Listing Guidelines
- SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw to Vote Against XRP ETF
- Experts Predict 88-95% Chance of XRP ETF Approval before End of 2025
- BlackRock Remains Cautious on Spot XRP ETF Applications
- Ripple Meets SEC Listing Requirements
- The ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, already approved by the SEC, demonstrates a positive stance towards XRP-based ETFs.
- The potential approval of an XRP ETF containing Bitcoin and Gold, as proposed by Japan's SBI Holdings, indicates a growing interest in diversified crypto ETFs.
- Despite Commissioner Crenshaw's intentions to vote against the XRP ETF, experts predict that XRP ETF investing will bounce back, with odds ranging from 88-95% by the end of 2025.
