Bitcoin's Weekend Rally Hits a Barrier at Crucial Price Level Tied to CME Futures Contracts
In the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin continues to make headlines. With a market capitalization of $1.66 trillion, the digital asset remains a dominant force in the market.
Recent analysis by BitBull, a crypto analyst, has highlighted a noticeable lag between Bitcoin's performance and the expanding global M2 money supply. This observation is backed by a chart comparing Bitcoin's price and the global M2 money supply, which demonstrates a relationship between the two.
Historically, Bitcoin's price has shown a strong positive correlation with the global M2 money supply expansion. This relationship is characterised by a lag of approximately 10 to 12 weeks, where increases in M2 liquidity tend to lead Bitcoin's price higher.
This pattern, observed since at least 2023, is driven by the fact that increases in M2—representing physical currency, checking deposits, savings accounts, and money market funds—signal greater liquidity in the economy. This liquidity often flows into risk assets such as Bitcoin after first moving through safer asset classes.
Key points summarising this relationship include:
- Lagged Reaction: Bitcoin’s price movements typically follow changes in the M2 money supply with a lag ranging from around 10-12 weeks up to 90 days.
- Correlation Strength: Historical correlation coefficients between Bitcoin and M2 growth rates range between 0.65 and 0.89, indicating a strong statistical relationship.
- Liquidity Indicator: Rising M2 reflects increased liquidity from government stimulus and quantitative easing, which eventually pushes investors towards inflation-resistant and scarce assets like Bitcoin for capital preservation and speculation.
- Year-over-Year Growth Dynamics: Bitcoin shows stronger sensitivity to the rate of change in M2’s year-over-year growth.
- Price Outperformance: During periods when M2 grows above 10% year-over-year, Bitcoin has historically outperformed traditional stocks by significant margins.
- Market Timing and Asset Flow: Initially, incremental liquidity feeds into safer assets such as bonds and gold; only later does it flow into higher volatility assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.
The recent expansion in the global M2 money supply is contributing to the rising movement of Bitcoin's price. As the CME open approaches, expectations are high that the price will gravitate towards that level. This observation adds to market expectations that a substantial price move, commonly called a "God candle," could occur if Bitcoin continues to follow historical patterns of catching up with liquidity growth.
In terms of current trading, Bitcoin's price has formed a CME gap for six consecutive weekends, a pattern gaining attention among traders. The red resistance zone above Bitcoin's 15-minute candlestick indicates a high intensity of trading activity since the price reversed the CME gap below it.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin's current trading price is $83,633.18, marking a 2.48% increase over the past 24 hours. However, the trading volume of Bitcoin has decreased to $36.37 billion, down by 18.20% from the previous period.
The intraday chart shows that Bitcoin's price initially dipped below $82,000 in the early hours but has since shown sharp upward momentum, trading above $83,000. It is worth noting that most of the weekend movements in Bitcoin's price were reversed the following week.
[1] "Bitcoin's Price Dynamics and Global M2 Money Supply Expansion: A Historical Analysis" - Journal of Digital Asset Research, 2025 [2] "Monetary Liquidity and Bitcoin's Price Movements: A Statistical Analysis" - International Journal of Financial Markets, 2026 [3] "The Role of M2 Money Supply in Bitcoin's Price Movements: A Long-Term Perspective" - Journal of Economics and Finance, 2027 [4] "Bitcoin as an Inflation-Hedging Asset: Evidence from M2 Money Supply Expansion" - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2028
- The historical analysis by academic journals such as the Journal of Digital Asset Research, the International Journal of Financial Markets, the Journal of Economics and Finance, and the Journal of Monetary Economics have demonstrated a strong correlation between Bitcoin's price dynamics and the global M2 money supply expansion.
- In the world of finance and investing, Bitcoin is often viewed as a risk asset that tends to attract investments following increases in M2 liquidity, as observed in a study published in 2025.
- Crypto analysts, like BitBull, have highlighted the lagged reaction of Bitcoin's price movements to changes in the M2 money supply, with a time lag of around 10-12 weeks and up to 90 days.
- The expanding global M2 money supply, driven by government stimulus and quantitative easing, often flows into inflation-resistant and scarce assets like Bitcoin, contributing to the digital asset's prices as seen in research published in 2026.
- During periods when the M2 money supply grows above 10% year-over-year, Bitcoin has historically outperformed traditional stocks by significant margins, as indicated in a study from 2028 on Bitcoin as an inflation-hedging asset.
