Bitcoin's potential price surge: Exploring its potential climb
In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced a significant rebound, reaching $109,700, just shy of its all-time high. This rally, despite ongoing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty, appears sustainable in the near term.
Several factors support this view. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rally following geopolitical shocks and trade tensions. For instance, after the US-Israel-Iran conflict in mid-June caused a dip to around $99,000, Bitcoin quickly rebounded above $107,000, suggesting resilience amid geopolitical turmoil.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong and is outpacing miner supply. This institutional buying, combined with a global wave of interest rate cuts injecting liquidity into markets, creates a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin's price to rise further. Analysts and crypto asset managers like Bitwise project significant upside, anticipating Bitcoin could surge by around 30% to nearly $136,000 in July 2025.
On-chain data shows buyer dominance, and technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $105,000, pointing to a stable foundation for continued price recovery. However, investors should remain cautious and monitor ongoing macroeconomic developments closely.
Despite some short-term pullbacks below $110,000, the ongoing trade war is causing traders to exercise caution. This is evident in the net outflow of 342 million dollars from Bitcoin spot ETFs on Tuesday. The discount of Tether relative to the U.S. dollar, which generally signals fear and a desire to exit crypto markets, is also at its largest since mid-May.
The record surge in the Eurozone’s money supply (M2) in April may have played a major role in Bitcoin's rebound. However, the sharp drop in stablecoin premiums in China indicates a decline in demand for cryptocurrencies in the country.
Looking ahead, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its renewed momentum or face a reversal due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on Japanese products by more than 30% if no agreement is reached by July 9. This ongoing trade war could potentially impact Bitcoin's price.
Many analysts expect Bitcoin's peak price for this cycle around Q4 2025, roughly 18 months after the latest halving event in April 2024, indicating that the current rebound may be part of a longer-term bullish trend rather than a short-lived spike.
In summary, Bitcoin's recent rebound is underpinned by strong institutional buying, historical resilience after geopolitical shocks, and favorable liquidity conditions, making the rally sustainable in the near term despite global economic and trade uncertainties. However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor ongoing macroeconomic developments.
[1] CoinDesk (2025). Bitcoin rebounds above $107,000 after mid-June dip. [online] Available at: https://www.coindesk.com/news/2025/06/28/bitcoin-rebounds-above-107000-after-mid-june-dip/ [2] Bloomberg (2025). Institutional demand for Bitcoin outpaces miner supply. [online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-29/institutional-demand-for-bitcoin-outpaces-miner-supply [3] Blockstream (2025). On-chain data shows buyer dominance in Bitcoin market. [online] Available at: https://blog.blockstream.com/on-chain-data-shows-buyer-dominance-in-bitcoin-market/ [4] ADP (2025). U.S. private jobs decline by 33,000 in June. [online] Available at: https://www.adp.com/en-us/resources/data/adp-national-employment-report.aspx [5] Bitwise Asset Management (2025). Bitcoin could surge to nearly $136,000 in July 2025. [online] Available at: https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/news/bitcoin-could-surge-to-nearly-136000-in-july-2025/
Institutional investment in Bitcoin, fueled by strong demand and injected liquidity, aligns with technology-driven financial strategies. This convergence could potentially propel further growth in the Bitcoin market, as projected by analysts.
Moreover, Bitcoin's historical resilience against geopolitical shocks and trade tensions suggests ongoing potential for investment opportunities, despite global economic uncertainties. As such, technology continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the investment landscape of finance.
