Bitcoin's Cycle Theory Irrelevant, Claims CryptoQuant CEO, in Wake of Traditional Finance Dominance
Bitcoin's Boom-and-Bust Cycles Losing Their Relevance, Claims CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju
These days, Bitcoin (BTC) holding steady above the $100,000 mark isn't surprising, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The veteran crypto is experiencing a surge of interest from institutional players and the broader macroeconomic tides.
Bye-Bye Bitcoin Cycle Theory?
According to Ki Young Ju, his earlier prediction that Bitcoin's bull cycle had reached an end two months ago was, well, off base.
"Two months ago, I said 'peak cycle', but I was off the mark. The Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and giant inflows are pouring in through ETFs," he wrote.
This change of heart comes as TradFi players like ETFs and institutional investors bring some new twists to the digital asset market. In Ki's view, these new players are literally rewriting the script.
Historically, on-chain analysts sorted out cycle tops by keeping tabs on miner reserves, whale movements, and retail inflows. Those days, though, are starting to feel like a distant memory. A single firm now holds a whopping 555,450 BTC – that's a significant stake, recently boosted by a massive 1,895 BTC purchase worth $180.3 million.
Thanks to a long-term accumulation strategy and persistent institutional interest, this firm's Bitcoin holdings have surged by 50.1%. That surge ain't due to cyclical timing, but instead good old-fashioned portfolio management.
The entry of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and increased allocations from global TradFi players are forcing analysts to take a second look at liquidity flows.
BeInCrypto also reported that US-based ETFs saw net inflows return in May, pushing Bitcoin above the $100,000 mark. This move has given cycle theories a good shake-up, a structural change that Ki echoes.
"It looks like it's time to chuck that cycle theory... Now, instead of focusing on the old whales offloading, it's more crucial to consider how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs," Ki stated.
Still, Ki insists that on-chain data still has some usefulness. He points to the Signal 365 MA chart as a long-term gauge. This chart tracks Bitcoin's price compared to its 365-day moving average.
Take a Zeno's leap with us
- Commission-free bonuses – up to $200 to juice your trades.
- Variety of Futures – crypto, stocks, commodities, and more.
- User-friendly Platform - simple, powerful, trustworthy.
Join Plus500 Now!But even this model, which once nailed the cyclical extremes, is starting to feel the strain as the variables change and shows signs of recalibration.
Analyst Kyledoops noted on his X that CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Indicator just flipped a mildly bullish reading since February, as BTC reclaimed the $100,000 mark.
"The 30-day average is starting to curve up. A cross above the 365-day average has historically catalyzed big runs. Might be nothing. Might be everything," he observed.
Beyond chart signals, macro forces are also speeding up Bitcoin's fusion with TradFi. BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin is becoming more popular as a hedge against US Treasury risk and fiat debasement. Traditional asset management circles are starting to sound the same tune.
The Bitcoin market no longer fits neatly into the old cyclical box. Analysts might find themselves forced to revise their strategies with the ETF inflows, institutional reserves, and TradFi's growing footprint.
"Just because I was wrong doesn't mean on-chain data is useless. Data is just data, and perspectives vary. I will strive to provide top-notch analyses in the future," Ki concluded.
In a nutshell, the Bitcoin market is maturing, and as TradFi starts to take the wheel, the playbook is getting rewritten in real time.
- institutional players and macroeconomic tides are contributing to Bitcoin (BTC)'s steady price above $100,000.
- According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, his earlier prediction that Bitcoin's bull cycle had ended was off the mark, citing easing selling pressure and giant inflows through ETFs.
- Traditional financial players like ETFs and institutional investors are bringing new twists to the digital asset market, causing a shift in market dynamics.
- On-chain analysts, who historically sorted out cycle tops by tracking miner reserves, whale movements, and retail inflows, are starting to reassess their methods due to increased liquidity from institutions and ETFs.
- A single firm now holds a significant stake of 555,450 BTC, highlighting the influence of institutional investors in the market.
- US-based ETFs have seen net inflows return in May, contributing to Bitcoin's surge above the $100,000 mark and challenging traditional cycle theories.
- Analysts are now focusing more on the inflow of new liquidity from institutions and ETFs rather than traditional signs of cycle tops.
- The maturing Bitcoin market is seeing a real-time revision of the playbook as TradFi begins to exert a growing influence, with analysts and investors adapting their strategies accordingly.